Current Context & Form
- Fiorentina (9th, 59 points):
- Recent Form: Struggling with 4 consecutive losses in Serie A, including a shocking 1-2 defeat to relegation-threatened Venezia .
- Key Absences: Striker Moise Kean (17 goals) and Lucas Beltran are suspended/injured, while Albert Gudmundsson and Michael Folorunsho are also sidelined, leaving the attack depleted .
- Home Record: Strong at home with 5 wins in their last 8 matches, including victories over Juventus (3-0) and Atalanta (1-0) .
- Bologna (7th, 62 points):
- Recent Form: Won the Coppa Italia midweek (1-0 vs. Milan) but have only 2 wins in their last 6 league games. They are fighting for a top-four finish, trailing Juventus by 2 points .
- Away Form: Mixed results (2 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss in last 6 away games) but strong defensively with 5 clean sheets in 18 away matches .
- Motivation: Aiming to secure Champions League qualification, with key players like Riccardo Orsolini (13 goals) and Dan Ndoye in form .
Head-to-Head (H2H)
- Bologna has dominated recent meetings, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters, including a 1-0 victory in December 2024 .
- Fiorentina, however, have a strong home H2H record: unbeaten in 12 of their last 13 home games against Bologna (9 wins, 3 draws) .
Tactical & Key Player Insights
- Fiorentina’s Approach:
- Reliant on midfielders Rolando Mandragora (3 goals) and Yacine Adli (6 assists) to compensate for missing forwards. Expected to deploy a defensive 3-5-2 formation .
- Vulnerable to counterattacks due to a high defensive line, which Bologna’s Rafael Leão could exploit .
- Bologna’s Approach:
- Likely to use fast transitions, leveraging Orsolini’s creativity and Thijs Dallinga’s hold-up play. Midfielders Remo Freuler and Lewis Ferguson will aim to control the tempo .
- Defensive gaps may emerge if left-back Juan Miranda pushes too high, leaving space for Fiorentina’s wingbacks .
Key Factors
Fatigue vs. Momentum: Bologna’s Coppa Italia triumph could either energize them or lead to physical exhaustion, especially after a midweek final .
Injury Crisis: Fiorentina’s depleted attack (missing Kean, Beltran, and Gudmundsson) reduces their goal threat, putting pressure on midfielders to contribute .
Defensive Stability: Both teams average ~1.1 goals conceded per game, suggesting a tight contest. Under 2.5 goals has landed in 5 of Bologna’s last 6 league games .
Predictions & Betting Tips
- Scoreline: 1-1 Draw or 1-2 Bologna Win .