9 July 2025

PSG Vs Real Madrid Full Match Analysis


Team Form & Context

PSG

  • Dominant Knockout Form: Won last 4 knockout matches across all competitions by a combined 14-0 scoreline, including a 2-0 quarter-final win over Bayern Munich .
  • Tournament Stats: 9 different goalscorers (tied for most in Club World Cup history), with clean sheets in 4 of their 5 matches .
  • Key Concern: Suspensions to CBs Lucas Hernández and Willian Pacho (red cards vs. Bayern) force a defensive reshuffle

Real Madrid:

  • Unbeaten CWC Pedigree: Never lost in Club World Cup history (W17 D3 L0), winning 15 of last 16 matches since 2014 .
  • Attacking Threats: Gonzalo García has 4 goals in 5 CWC apps (youngest Madrid player since 2014 with 5 consecutive goal contributions). Kylian Mbappé scored in the 3-2 quarter-final win over Dortmund .
  • Vulnerability: Conceded late goals in 3 of 5 tournament games, including a nervy 3-2 win vs. Dortmund .

Tactical Breakdown

PSG’s Adjustments

  • System (4-3-3):
  • Defensive Changes: Marquinhos partners Lucas Beraldo at CB (Pacho/Hernández suspended), reducing defensive stability .
  • Attack Focus: Dembélé (goal vs. Bayern) likely starts; Mbappé’s replacement Khvicha Kvaratskhelia provides width .
  • Midfield Balance: Ugarte shields the backline; Verratti/Neves control possession .
  • Weakness: High defensive line susceptible to Vinícius Jr.’s pace; new CB pairing may lack coordination .

Real Madrid’s Approach

  • System (4-4-2 Diamond):
  • Attack Trio: Mbappé (vs. former club) joins Vinícius Jr. and García; Bellingham as roaming #10 .
  • Midfield Control: Camavinga’s return bolsters options; Tchouaméni anchors .
  • Defensive Setup: Rudiger/Asencio at CB (Militao not risked); Alexander-Arnold’s crosses key .
  • Weakness: Full-backs (Carvajal/Fran García) targeted by PSG’s wingers; late-game concentration lapses .

Key Battles

  • Mbappé vs Carvajal: Pace vs. experience; Mbappé’s movement tests Carvajal’s defensive discipline .
  • Bellingham vs Ugarte: Madrid’s top creator (3 goals in tournament) vs. PSG’s midfield disruptor .
  • Vinícius Jr. vs Hakimi: Duel of speed; Hakimi’s overlaps could leave space for Vinícius counters .
  • Marquinhos vs García: PSG captain must contain García’s aerial threat (joint-top CWC scorer) .

Predicted Outcome

  • PSG Edge: Opta supercomputer gives PSG 58.7% chance to progress (47.4% win in 90 mins) .
  • Madrid Resilience: Win 27.3% of simulations in regulation; unbeaten CWC record adds psychological edge .
  • Decisive Factors:
  • PSG’s defensive absences vs. Madrid’s attacking depth.
  • Set-pieces: Rudiger (Madrid) and Marquinhos (PSG) aerial threats.
  • Mbappé’s motivation vs. former club .
  • Score Prediction: PSG 2-1 Real Madrid (high-scoring draw possible). PSG’s knockout momentum and defensive organization (despite suspensions) narrowly edge Madrid’s late-game fragility .