Head-to-Head and Tournament Context
Historically, Algeria has dominated this fixture, and they enter this knockout match as the more in-form team.
| Aspect | Analysis & Key Statistics |
|---|---|
| Head-to-Head Record | Algeria is historically dominant, remaining unbeaten in all 7 meetings (3 wins, 4 draws). However, the last 4 encounters have all ended in draws. |
| AFCON Meetings | Their two previous AFCON games ended in a 1-0 win for Algeria (1998) and a 0-0 draw (2000). |
| Current AFCON Form | Algeria was perfect in the group stage (3 wins), scoring 7 goals and conceding only 1. DR Congo was solid, advancing unbeaten (2 wins, 1 draw) but scored fewer goals (5). |
| Knockout Stage Experience | DR Congo has recent experience, reaching the 2023 semi-finals. Both of their previous Round of 16 matches went to penalty shootouts (lost in 2019, won in 2023). Algeria won their only previous Round of 16 match 3-0 in 2019. |
Key Players and Tactical Outlook
The match will likely be decided by key individual performances and strategic setups.
- Algeria’s Attack: The team’s form is spearheaded by Riyad Mahrez, their all-time top AFCON scorer with 3 goals already this tournament. Young talent Ibrahim Maza has also been influential, creating the most chances (8) in the group stage. Coach Vladimir Petkovic has a dynamic and confident squad at his disposal.
- DR Congo’s Threat: They are led by the experienced Gaël Kakuta, who had a stellar performance (2 goals, 1 assist) in their final group match. The team, managed by Sébastien Desabre, is defensively organized and has shown they are a tough opponent to break down.
- Injuries: Algeria will be without midfielder Houssem Aouar. DR Congo’s Mario Stroeykens is also injured.
- Possible Lineups:
- Algeria (Probable): Mandi, Bensebaini, Aït-Nouri; Bennacer; Mahrez, Chaïbi; Bounedjah/Amoura.
- DR Congo: Their lineup is less certain, but they will likely rely on a solid defensive base to contain Algeria’s attack.
Match Prediction and Key Factors
Most analyses and betting odds point towards an Algeria win within regular time. The odds for an Algeria win are around 1.97-2.00, a draw at 3.05-3.15, and a DR Congo win at 4.00-4.25.
- Most Likely Outcome: Algeria to Win. Their superior offensive firepower and flawless group-stage momentum make them the logical pick.
- Score Prediction: 2-0 or 1-0 to Algeria. A clean sheet is plausible given Algeria’s defensive record (1 goal conceded) and the fact they have never conceded to DR Congo in AFCON play.
- Key Match Factors:
- First Goal: Algeria is unbeaten in their last 15 AFCON matches when scoring first. The team that scores first will have a massive advantage.
- Mahrez vs. Kakuta: The battle between the two star playmakers could decide the game.
- Knockout Mentality: DR Congo’s recent penalty shootout experience means they are comfortable in tight, high-pressure games. If they can keep it close, they could push the match to extra time or penalties.
- Prediction: Algeria to win (most likely 2-0).
